Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
